Why are the majority of members still ungrouped?

The Great Ungrouped - who are they?

The identification of the 8 genetic clusters (among the 89 project members who have taken a Y-DNA test) has resulted in 31 project members being allocated to a specific genetic family. Members within a genetic family are highly likely to be related by a common ancestor who lived some time since the introduction of surnames and possibly a lot more recent than that, perhaps in the last 200-400 years. 

However, this exercise has left 58 members as ungrouped "singletons". That's 65% ... almost two thirds of the members of the project. Is there any way that we can allocate these people to a group? Are you one of these people? 

The Ungrouped category can be broken down into those who belong to Haplogroup R (52 in number) and those who don't (it was 6, but has just gone up to 7). Haplogroup R is the most common haplogroup in Western Europe accounting for between 60-90% of the population of Britain & Ireland. It is also the most difficult to organise into distinct genetic clusters so moving members out of this group will be a challenge. However, the good news is that for some members this will be easier than you might think.

Of the Ungrouped Haplogroup R members (52), 38 are Farrell variants. Of these, 15 have only tested up to 12 markers and this accounts for over 40% of the total. Interestingly, 8 of these 15 people are transfers from the National Genographic project (as indicated by an N at the start of their kit number). If these 15 people upgraded to at least the 37 marker level, there is a good chance that about half of them would be reallocated to a genetic family. 

All members are encouraged to test at least 37 markers as a minimum as this may result in your allocation to one of the existing genetic families. This in turn will help you identify which members you should be collaborating with, and collaboration is the secret to success in breaking through some of the Brick Walls in your own personal research. 

Farrell singletons in the Ungrouped Haplogroup R category

Two members have tested up to only 25 markers (they should upgrade to 37 markers), and the rest (21, 55%) have tested to at least the 37-marker level. For these latter people, success is a waiting game. But in time, most of them will be matched up with genetic cousins and allocated to genetic families as more people join the project or upgrade their results to the Y-DNA-37 test. Thus, this percentage of singletons will gradually decrease as more people are "paired up" with their genetic cousins.

To upgrade to the Y-DNA-37 test, simply follow the instructions on the Welcome page here - http://farrelldna.blogspot.co.uk/2015/01/welcome-to-blog.html

I took a closer look at each of the Farrell singletons in "Ungrouped R" to see if we could predict to which genetic family they might eventually be allocated. Check and see if your kit number is below. 

Assessment of those singletons who have tested up to 37-markers reveals the following: 

• No close matches exist for the following kit numbers … 
• 278451, 80754, 56335, 134599, N10126, 117543, 331160, 46471, 168478, B1778, 197440, 121852, B1164, 328907, 72325, 73900, 61790

• A (poor?) match exists with an individual but not with a group for the following singletons … 
• 169133 …   GD 4/37 cf 262693 (R1b-GF2b) but 8/37 from MH37 for R1b-GF2a [1]
• 27344 …     GD 4/37 cf 166772 (R1b-GF2b) but 7/37 from MH37 for R1b-GF2a
• 81500 ...      GD 4/37 and 8/67 with N112356 but not close to any genetic family
• N112356 ... GD 4/37 and 8/67 with 81500 but not close to any genetic family

Evaluation of Ungrouped R Farrell singletons with only 25 markers tested reveals the following … 

• 68963 … closest match is GD 3/25 => left in Ungrouped R
• 81222 … closest match is GD 4/25 => left in Ungrouped R

Lastly, I examined those Ungrouped R Farrell singletons with only 12 marker values and assessed to which of the existing Genetic Families they most closely matched. In many cases, these members match not one but several of the existing genetic families so it is not possible to predict to which one they might eventually belong. 

• 190328 … 0/12 with R1b-GF1 (x4), and 1/12 with R1b-GF1 (x2) 
• 244045 … 0/12 with R1b-GF2 (x4), and 1/12 with R1b-GF2 (x3) 
• 46123 … no matches at 12-markers with others in the project 
• N8929 … 1/12 with R1b-GF1 (x4) and R1b-GF2 (x1) 
• 73576 … 0/12 with R1b-GF4 (x4), R1b-GF2 (x2), GF3 (x1), & GF5 (x1) 
• N3297 … 0/12 with R1b-GF5 (x1), and 1/12 with GF4 (x4), GF2 (x1), & GF5 (x1) 
• N27745 … 0/12 with R1b-GF5 (x1) 
• 76572 … 0/12 with R1b-GF2 (x3), 1/12 with GF2 (x6), GF4 (x4), & GF5 (x1) 
• 92367 … 0/12 with R1b-GF2 (x3), and 1/12 with GF2 (x6), GF4 (x4), & GF5 (x1) 
• N4064 … 0/12 with R1b-GF2 (x3), and 1/12 with GF2 (x7), GF4 (x4), & GF5 (x1) 
• N59173 … 0/12 with R1b-GF2 (x3), and 1/12 with GF2 (x6), GF4 (x4), & GF5 (x1) 
• N83661 … 0/12 with R1b-GF2 (x3), and 1/12 with GF2 (x6), GF4 (x4), & GF5 (x1) 
• 141870 … 0/12 with R1b-GF5, and 1/12 with GF2 (x3), & GF5 (x1) 
• N70429 … 1/12 with R1b-GF4 (x4) and GF2 (x1) 
• N41702 … 0/12 with ungrouped 72325 

Thus, the 12-marker Y-DNA test does not allow us to separate members into different genetic families and (for many) upgrading to 37 markers is the only way that such allocation will take place. As we said above, to upgrade, simply follow the instructions on the Welcome page here - http://farrelldna.blogspot.co.uk/2015/01/welcome-to-blog.html

But there is another way that we can move members out of the Ungrouped category and allocate them to a genetic family ... but I'm keeping that a secret until the next blog post!

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[1] GD, Genetic Distance; 4/37, 4 "steps" away from an exact match at 37 markers; cf, compared to; MH37, Modal Haplotype at 37 markers